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DXY Is Long-Term Still BearishOne of the main reasons why USdollar – DXY may stay weak is DXY/ZN (DXY against 10Y US Notes) ratio chart. Now that 10Y US Notes is looking for a bigger recovery, DXY could easily see more weakness, as DXY/ZN ratio chart is still looking lower, but ideally once current bearish running triangle in (B) fully unfolds, which can be in final stages. With bullish stocks and while bonds are trading at potential support, there's no real reason to be bullish on USDollar, so DXY is long-term still bearish. DXY/ZN ratio chart is now at the upper triangle line for potential final subwave E of a bearish triangle in (B). Bond market recovery, may slow down the USdollar again, which can push DXY/ZN ratio chart into wave (C), but confirmation is below lower triangle line. However, of course, if USDollar will keep recovering, then DXY/ZN may face higher resistance for a flat correction within wave (B), but it’s still bearish on a higher degree time frame, so sooner or later DXY will back to bearish mode.
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
Collect Silver to Collect GoldSLV Breaking out, With Volume. See ON Balance volume to See relative volume on balance (already purchased) than in the past volume spikes. Consider supply vs demand if inflation continues. Educational Resource: www.youtube.com Background: Gold is Nearing All Time highs. Silver is at about 1/2 of its pervious ATH. COMEX:SI1! www.tradingview.com Silver is Becoming more valuable in comparison to gold. www.bullionbypost.com Gold To silver Ratio coming down, signifying that one ounce of gold is becoming easier to buy with less silver. As long as inflation remains persistent, and the interest rate remains around 5%, the issue of inflation will not go away unless these two numbers cross. Meaning that inflation will continue to grow, not shrink, and the problem remains. Right now economists are happy with a shrinkage in the rate of growth of inflation, indicating the issue is NOT YET RESOLVED. The Next FOMC is in the first week of May. WE have 3/4 of a month left.
AMEX:SLV
by International_Leeroy
AAPL ready to fill it's gapAAPL may be ready to drop into an expended wave 3 or 5, depending on what happens with the markets tomorrow. As far as I can tell, either wave 4 or wave 2 of 3 (of 3) was finished this morning - I've market the latter. Regardless of Elliot Wave Theory or Fibonacci, if they enter the gap under 140 and fail to recover, a major price support will have been broken. Recently I thought maybe AAPL would rally higher to 170 but now I'm having my doubts as the ratio charts I was watching have all broken down. I covered the ratio charts of AAPL in this post. Either way, I believe it's time for AAPL to drop quite hard and outperform to the downside all other indexes into Christmas. I know many will scoff at this idea, and I'll be happy to update if it gets invalidated. I am short aapl as of today. Good luck!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by the_sunship
5
R/Sector Analysis: Consumer Staples + Consumer DiscretionaryRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40. Each chart is presented with the following annotations: 1. Price with a 2 standard deviation linear regression channel over 20 days. 2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: D1, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter)
JSE:TFG
by techpers
Relative Sector Analysis: PGMs and GoldiesRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40. Each chart is presented with the following annotations: 1. Price with a 2 standard deviation linear regression channel over 200 days. 2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: 3D, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter)
JSE:ANG
by techpers
Relative Sector Analysis: Coal Miners & TelcosRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40. Each chart is presented with the following annotations: 1. Price with a 2 standard deviation linear regression channel over 200 days. 2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: 3D, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter)
JSE:VOD
by techpers
Using the SPX put call Ratio to trade SPX This chart provides insight into how to use the SPX P/C ratio chart coupled with Bollinger bands to make high-probability trading decisions. Each time the P/C spikes above or below the Bollinger band it mean reverts that same day. For this example, I used the SPX daily chart to show when price action hit resistance the P/C chart rose to extremes quickly the next day resulting in a sell-off in the SPX. I hope this adds another weapon to your trading tool belt!
SP:SPX
by Optionism
Using the SPX put call Ratio to trade SPX This chart provides insight into how to use the SPX P/C ratio chart coupled with Bollinger bands to make high-probability trading decisions. Each time the P/C spikes above or below the Bollinger band it mean reverts that same day. For this example, I used the SPX daily chart to show when price action hit resistance the P/C chart rose to extremes quickly the next day resulting in a sell-off in the SPX. I hope this adds another weapon to your trading tool belt!
USI:PCSPX
by Optionism
DIA: Week of Nov 14Hey everyone, As I said and requested, here is my analysis on the DOW. The DOW (DIA) and the Russel (IWM) are actually the most bullish looking stocks, at least as far as math and probs are concerned. Lots of bullishness is just being thrown in our faces here. Let me break down the probabilities by index so you can just see this visually. The chart below shows the probability of the 3 indices (SPY, DIA and IWM) hitting either their first bull target or their first bear target: So let's recap: First off, we have a very clear breakout and hold from the qualitative regression downtrend. This is a traditionally bullish happening. As with SPY, we have hit the second real time monthly bear target and on Friday we hit the first, real time (RTT) monthly high target at 337.79. The next RTT is 341 followed by the third at 345. While I was super focused on the numbers and the regression trend, I missed something that may have been obvious had I been paying closer attention: This seems to, at this for right now, be following through. Analysis: So what can we expect next week? DIA is yet to be put into Python for auto calculation of probs, so I had to do it manually and I forgot how much of a nerd I am. I love writing out math stuff haha. Anyway, our prospective targets are: Bull: 1. 339.08 (50% prob) 2. 341.66 (6.1% prob) 3. 344.24 (<0.50% prob) Bear 1.335.29 (38% prob) 2. 331.92 (0.3% prob) 3. 328.55 (<0.3% prob) Technicals: Unlike with SPY, Buyers have remain consistent. DIA is a little bit lower volume that SPY and can really signal a bit better what the buyer/seller sentiment is. So let's take a look at the buyer to seller ratio chart. And let's look at it YTD over the weekly. And just for fun lets compare buyers to sellers on SPY vs DIA YTD: Not sure if this is helpful, but I find it interesting haha. For Monday, the technicals are erring on the bullish side. The targets are as follows: Bull: 1. 337.51 2. 338.89 3. 340.27 Bear: 1. 336.29 2. 334.68 3. 333.07 So I think that concludes everything. As always, leave your questions and comments and criticisms below! Have a great weekend everyone!
AMEX:DIA
by Steversteves
11
Relative Sector AnalysisRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40. Each chart is presented with the following annotations: 1. A 2 standard deviation, 21-day linear regression channel (signifies 1 month) where, the upper boundary represents an overbought range (potential selling/distribution range) while the lower boundary represents an oversold range (potential buying/accumulation range). 2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: 1D, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter) These data points are included in my research. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
JSE:NPN
by techpers
Relative Sector AnalysisRelative performance and relative strength is meant to assist traders and investors in understanding the appropriate weighting/positioning versus the overall market. Combined with additional factors, a trader is able to determine whether they should hold an equal weight, underweight and overweight position versus the index. The data below represents the relative ratio charts (equally weighted) of the major sectors of the JSE versus the Top 40. Each chart is presented with the following annotations: 1. A 2 standard deviation, 21-day linear regression channel (signifies 1 month) where, the upper boundary represents an overbought range (potential selling/distribution range) while the lower boundary represents an oversold range (potential buying/accumulation range). 2. Adjacent to the price chart (right hand side), is the Relative Strength Index for the following periods: 1D, 1W, 21D (1 Month) and 63D (1 Quarter) These data points are included in my research. For more research insights, including trade ideas, get in touch today.
JSE:ANG
by techpers
Growth vs. Value Update: Does the Market Know Something?Today, a leading technical analyst noted that growth was breaking out vs. value. This analyst flipped bullish a few days ago from bearish, after the US indices rose well off the 5/20/22 lows. Having pulled up my relative charts—the above chart is a ratio chart of RPG vs RPV—downtrend lines have been broken to the upside. Note the blue and the red downtrend lines which will be discussed below. Considering this relative chart (also called a spread chart) of growth vs. value, it is apparent that short-term downtrends have been broken. The blue line represents the latest downtrend. However, consider the red line, representing a downtrend from mid-December 2021 to mid-March 2022. This downtrend line was broken with the powerful rally from March 15-29, 2022. But even though this downtrend line was broken, the downtrend resumed in earnest as of early April 2022. But it could also be argued that the longer-term downtrend from December 2021 to May 2021, a more significant trendline given its length, has been broken as well. See the orange line in the chart above. Should the break of a downtrend make one bullish or bearish? The answer is not yet clear. It's definitely worth watching growth vs. value. If equal-weighted technology continues to outperform, this could mark a significant rally for technology / growth into mid-to-late summer. But it could also merely represent a strong bear rally where the underperformers bounce back hard because they've been stretched to the downside. The Fed has not yet signaled it intends to let up in its tightening / hawkish policy. Does the market know something the Fed doesn't? Short-term traders may wish to trade growth to the upside after waiting for retracements (pullbacks) that do not fail at key support. Longer-term investors may want to wait for better entries (e.g., a sizeable retracement of the move off the lows—watching carefully that retracement does not gather trend-like speed and momentum.
AMEX:RPG
by SquishTrade
1
Gold ... Intermediate Term Bottom ??With today's US CPI numbers out of the way and a modest degree of stabilization in equity markets, Gold appears to have made a short term bottom. This is the third touch of a six month trendline. We add to this a bullish harmonic Gartley pattern which appears to have formed. (This includes a solid AB=CD subset.) We need IMHO another ingredient. A weaker $USD which I measure by the DXY index. Not only do we need this in ]absolute but also in Gold relative terms For illustration I have included as an insert a Gold/DXY ratio chart on the same 4 hour time frame as the base chart. With these conditions in play we look for a stabilizing and then an appreciating Gold price from here. This is educational not investment advice. Do your own due diligence while watching the bigger picture and review world events as they evolve around you. This can be a fast and volatile market. Good Luck and thanks for reading. Hopefully you found it this useful. S.
TVC:GOLDLong
by Steve666
My Daily Short Volume Indicator (1st on TradingView)Hi all, Given the recent attention to short interest, short volume, short everything - I'm publishing this analysis about what my indicator does and does NOT do since I've already been getting a few questions about it. Terminology: Short Volume = the number of shares opened *or* closed short in a given day. (Unfortunately, this data does not exist intraday for retail usage from exchanges. If you want intraday, you WILL have to buy this for an extremely expensive monthly subscription.) Short Interest = the number of shares currently open which are held short against a specific stock / ticker. (This is only reported by the exchanges twice monthly and has a two week lag - 2021 schedule here: www.finra.org) Short Float = the percentage of shares currently open short / the number of shares currently float (float = in market circulation) in that stock. Introduction: Quandl supplies a daily total volume and short volume dataset for two main exchanges - NYSE & NASDAQ. This indicator aggregates both of those so you have everything which is publicly and easily available via Quandl BUT and this is a big BUT: ** There are lots of other exchanges which are not included in this indicator, i.e. there are lots of other places that traders can open and close shorts outside of those two exchanges ** This indicator should be consider a sample of the market. A soft-indicator, not an exhaustive data resource. Walkthrough: This indicator has 3 main settings currently: Shs Outstanding Daily Short Volume Short Volume Ratio When I'm screening a stock in a potential short squeeze (Example GME, other great examples are KNDI, KODK, etc.) - what I'm looking for is: Has the dilution changed since the last major squeeze event? (most squeezers are repeat squeezers) What has the short volume been looking like lately? What is the ratio of short volume to long volume lately? Each of those settings on this indicator attempt to answer those questions and those questions only. For instance, when using the Daily Short Volume indicator - I'm able to see the early squeeze around the 20 mark on GME and try to analyze further if there's potential for a re-squeeze (new shorts who entered at 20 get squeezed by higher prices etc.) And when using the short volume ratio - I'm trying to predict how MUCH of the move can be attributed to short volume (opening or closing). In this case, it looks like no more than 25% was due to short volume on the NYSE / NASDAQ which is pretty significant compared to something like the KODK move in July 2020 which was pure long day trading on a small float with news catalyst. VS. Feel free to reach out with comments, ideas, questions, and more. Hope this helps you find your Gamestonk before it happens next time.
NYSE:GME
by from0_to_1
1